▼
Carbotura 400 TPD
Advanced Circular Manufacturing • RevCon 3 Baseline • February 2026
Interactive Sensitivity Tool
Values update live • All figures in $ millions USD
◉ Key Input Controls
TMC Fee
?
Tipping / Municipal Contribution fee paid by the feedstock owner to Carbotura per ton delivered. Baseline = $75/ton. Scales COA NPV and Urban Mining Reserve value.
$75/ton
$0$75 baseline$150
Product Price Multiplier
?
Applied to all commodity output prices. 5% = deep stress. 50% = Business Baseline (conservative). 100% = current spot market. Drives Materials DCF, IP Value, Urban Reserve, and EV.
50%
5% Stress50% Baseline ←100% Market
Renewable Carbon-Negative Premium
+10%
Applies a 10% uplift to Materials DCF and Urban Mining Reserve to reflect the certified carbon-negative premium commanded by Carbotura's renewable output vs. conventional equivalents. Stacks on top of the price multiplier.
+10% uplift to Materials DCF & Urban Reserve
Number of 400 TPD SPVs
?
Parent Holdco roll-up across multiple identical SPV sites. Each SPV is a ring-fenced LLC with the same economics. Max = 54 (full deployment plan). Urban Mining Reserve shown at full value per site.
1
1 site27 sites54 sites (full plan)
Include Environmental Credits
est.
45Q / 45V / RINs / RECs / VCCs. NPV estimated at $354M based on ~$2.3B 30-yr credit revenue at 2.5% CPI, discounted at 17% Ke. Model toggle = No (conservative baseline); enable for upside scenario.
45Q · 45V · RINs · RECs · VCCs — est. $354M NPV
Urban Reserve: NI 43-101 Gross
vs NPV
OFF = NPV basis: $828M (same 30-yr cash flows discounted @ 17% Ke — economic value today). ON = NI 43-101 Gross: $4,259M (undiscounted 30-yr LOM reserve value — industry standard for resource statements, collateral, and M&A). Analogous to how oil companies report proved reserves at gross NRV, not discounted.
NPV basis: ~$828M/site
⚑
Showing NI 43-101 Gross Reserve Value
The 30-year Circular Offtake Agreement is a contracted Proven Reserve — legally analogous to a mine's life-of-mine or an oil field's PDP reserve. Industry standard (NI 43-101, JORC, SEC S-K 1300) reports these at gross Net Realizable Value, not discounted, because the reserve statement answers "what is in the ground?" not "what is the IRR?" Lenders, rating agencies, and M&A buyers use the gross figure for collateral coverage, borrowing base, and enterprise value in resource-company transactions. The DCF NPV ($828M/site) is the correct economic value; the gross NRV ($4,259M/site) is the correct reserve value. Both are legitimate — they answer different questions.
RevCon 3 model · 400 TPD · 30-year life · Captive energy mode
Business Baseline = 50% of current spot market (conservative)
Parent Holdco consolidates all SPVs · 7% licensing interco eliminated
Business Baseline = 50% of current spot market (conservative)
Parent Holdco consolidates all SPVs · 7% licensing interco eliminated
Single 400 TPD SPV
$286M
Enterprise Value (DCF) · Equity Value $244M
Full Asset Stack:
—
IRR / Payback
46% / 4 yrs
scales with price mult.
Full Asset Stack — Single SPV
?
Includes all five asset classes: TMC Cash Flows, Materials DCF, IP License Value, Env Credits, and Urban Mining Reserve. Urban Mining is an NI 43-101 intangible asset — analogous to a proved mineral reserve — and is a first-class component of the stack.
Total: —
TMC
—
COA NPV
Materials
—
Commodity NPV
IP License
—
License to SPV
Env (est.)
—
Credits NPV
Urban
—
NI 43-101
Parent Holdco Consolidated
—
Full Asset Stack (incl. Urban Mining Reserve) · 1 site(s)
TMC Cash Flows
—
COA NPV @ 6%
Materials DCF
—
Commodity NPV @ 17% Ke
IP License
—
License NPV / site
Env Credits (est.)
—
NPV @ 17% Ke
Urban Reserve
—
NI 43-101 LOM
◆ Key Ratios
Investor
COA Reserve Coverage
—
Urban Reserve ÷ EV
Equity MOIC
—
EV ÷ $48.5M equity invested
IRR vs WACC Spread
—
IRR − 15.6% WACC
Lender
Reserve ÷ Debt
—
Urban Reserve ÷ $123M debt
Stack ÷ Project Cost
—
Full Stack ÷ $226.7M CAPEX
30-yr FCF Return on EV
—
$2.09B 30-yr FCF ÷ EV
COA · Community
Circular Royalty Ratio
1.37×
Royalties back ÷ TMC fees paid
Benefit Per Ton (Avg)
$403
30-yr avg vs $95 avoided cost Yr 1
EBITDA Margin (Avg)
56%
30-yr average
◈ Equity Sale Calculator
Gross cash proceeds from selling a percentage of the asset stack value. SPV panel = single-site project finance raise. Parent panel = consolidated holdco raise. Sliders are independent — model a dual-tranche structure simultaneously.
Single SPV Raise
% of single-site DCF asset stack sold
% of Asset Stack to Sell
0.0%
0%Minority max 49%
SPV Full Asset Stack (live)
—
Gross Cash Proceeds
$0M
Implied Total Valuation
—
Implied per 1%
—
Retained stack value
100.0% → —
Parent Holdco Raise
% of consolidated DCF asset stack sold at holdco level
% of Asset Stack to Sell
0.0%
0%Minority max 49%
Parent Full Asset Stack (live)
—
Gross Cash Proceeds
$0M
Implied Total Valuation
—
Implied per 1%
—
Retained stack value
100.0% → —
Combined Proceeds
SPV Raise
$0M
+
Parent Raise
$0M
=
Total Capital Raised
$0M
Asset Stack Sources (verified from model):
TMC Cash Flows = COA Contract NPV @ 6% infrastructure rate (Assumptions B81) · Materials DCF = Strategic Reserves NPV @ 17% Ke (Assumptions B86)
IP Value = Relief-from-Royalty NPV of 7% licensing @ 17% Ke (Assumptions B76) · Urban Mining Reserve — two valid bases: NI 43-101 Gross = undiscounted 30-yr LOM NRV @ 50% discount to spot ($4,259M/site · collateral / resource statement basis) | DCF NPV = same flows @ 17% Ke ($828M/site · economic value basis). Toggle switches between them.
Env Credits NPV estimated: ~$2.3B 30-yr revenue at 2.5% CPI, discounted @ 17% Ke — not in base model (toggle = conservative).
EV / Equity from Executive Dashboard. Product price mult 0.50× = Business Baseline (50% of spot market).
TMC Cash Flows = COA Contract NPV @ 6% infrastructure rate (Assumptions B81) · Materials DCF = Strategic Reserves NPV @ 17% Ke (Assumptions B86)
IP Value = Relief-from-Royalty NPV of 7% licensing @ 17% Ke (Assumptions B76) · Urban Mining Reserve — two valid bases: NI 43-101 Gross = undiscounted 30-yr LOM NRV @ 50% discount to spot ($4,259M/site · collateral / resource statement basis) | DCF NPV = same flows @ 17% Ke ($828M/site · economic value basis). Toggle switches between them.
Env Credits NPV estimated: ~$2.3B 30-yr revenue at 2.5% CPI, discounted @ 17% Ke — not in base model (toggle = conservative).
EV / Equity from Executive Dashboard. Product price mult 0.50× = Business Baseline (50% of spot market).
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The Elemental Makeup of
Municipal Solid Waste
Everything we discard is made of atoms. Just 16 elements account for over 99% of all waste by mass — and where you live shapes which ones dominate.
📊 EPA & ASTM MSW Characterization Data
🌍 6 World Regions Compared
⚗️ Special Waste Streams & REEs
⚖️ 1-Ton Breakdown Included
① The Universal Foundation
Key Facts
16
Elements make up
>99% of all MSW by mass
>99% of all MSW by mass
~50%
of MSW by mass
is Carbon (C)
is Carbon (C)
4.9 lbs
average daily waste per
US household member
US household member
The 16 Core Elements of Waste
C
Carbon
~48%
O
Oxygen
~25%
H
Hydrogen
~6.5%
N
Nitrogen
~1.5%
S
Sulfur
~0.5%
Cl
Chlorine
~0.5%
Si
Silicon
~3%
Al
Aluminum
~1.5%
Fe
Iron
~1%
Ca
Calcium
~3%
Na
Sodium
~0.5%
K
Potassium
~0.4%
Mg
Magnesium
~0.3%
P
Phosphorus
~0.3%
Ti
Titanium
~0.15%
Zn
Zinc
~0.1%
What's in 1 Ton (2,000 lbs) of Typical MSW?
⚖️
Average elemental mass in 1 ton of mixed US MSW
Based on EPA characterization data — dry weight basis. Moisture (~20–30%) excluded. Carbon alone accounts for nearly half a ton of every ton of waste generated.
C
960 lbs
Carbon
O
500 lbs
Oxygen
H
130 lbs
Hydrogen
Ca
60 lbs
Calcium
Si
60 lbs
Silicon
Al
30 lbs
Aluminum
N
30 lbs
Nitrogen
Fe
20 lbs
Iron
Na
10 lbs
Sodium
S
10 lbs
Sulfur
Cl
10 lbs
Chlorine
K
8 lbs
Potassium
Mg
6 lbs
Magnesium
P
6 lbs
Phosphorus
Ti
3 lbs
Titanium
Zn
2 lbs
Zinc
② Common Waste Items
Elemental Profiles of Common Waste Items
Newspaper / Paper
Food Waste (Organic)
Plastic (HDPE/PET)
Steel / Tin Can
Glass Bottle
Yard Waste
Rubber / Textiles
Concrete / C&D Debris
Aluminum Can
③ Special Waste Streams
Industrial & Residual Waste — Elemental Profiles
End-of-Life Tires (ELTs)
~300M ELTs/yr in USA · ~1 billion globally
⚠ HAZARDOUS IF LANDFILLED
C
Carbon (rubber)
H
Hydrogen
S
Sulfur (vulcanization)
Fe
Iron (steel belts)
Zn
Zinc (activator)
⚠️ Tires contain zinc (1–2%), sulfur, and aromatic hydrocarbons. Landfill leachate risk is high. Pyrolysis recovers carbon black and steel; devulcanization recovers S-rich char. Zinc from tire crumb is a leading source of stormwater Zn contamination.
WTE Bottom & Fly Ash
Waste-to-Energy combustion residue · ~25% of input mass remains as ash
⚠ REGULATED RESIDUAL
Ca
Calcium (CaO, CaCO₃)
Si
Silicon (silicates)
Fe
Iron (metal residues)
Al
Aluminum
Cl
Chlorine (salts, dioxin precursor)
⚡ Bottom ash (~80% of ash volume) is increasingly used as road sub-base aggregate after metal recovery. Fly ash is hazardous — concentrated in Pb, Cd, dioxins, and furans. Ferrous/non-ferrous metal recovery from WTE ash is a growing secondary metals source.
Coal Combustion Ash (CCA)
Fly ash, bottom ash, flue gas desulfurization gypsum · ~130M tons/yr US
◆ COMPLEX MATRIX
Si
Silicon (aluminosilicates)
Al
Aluminum (oxides)
Fe
Iron (magnetite)
Ca
Calcium
C
Unburnt carbon (LOI)
🏗️ Class F fly ash is a pozzolan used as cement replacement (concrete, bricks). Contains trace As, Hg, Se, Cr, and critically — REEs at 300–600 ppm. US coal ash ponds hold ~1.4 billion tons, making them the largest unconventional REE deposit under study.
Wastewater Treatment Sludge
Biosolids (Class A/B) · ~8M dry tons/yr produced in USA
✦ NUTRIENT RESOURCE
C
Carbon (organics)
O
Oxygen
N
Nitrogen (protein, NH₄)
P
Phosphorus (struvite)
Fe
Iron (coagulants)
🌱 Sludge biosolids contain N, P, and K making them valuable fertilizer. However they also accumulate PFAS, heavy metals (Cd, Pb, Hg), and microplastics. Gold and silver are recoverable from sludge at 0.4–0.5 ppm — several cities now operate sludge precious-metal recovery programs.
Contaminated Recycling Stream
Wish-cycling, food residue, mixed plastics · ~25% contamination rate in US curbside
⚠ DIVERTED TO LANDFILL
C
Carbon (paper, food, plastic)
O
Oxygen
Al
Aluminum (cans, foil)
Fe
Iron (steel cans)
Si
Silicon (glass fragments)
🔄 Contamination shifts this stream's elemental profile toward landfill-typical MSW. Key cost: metals and glass that could be recovered are lost. China's 2018 National Sword policy (0.5% contamination threshold) caused ~70% of US recyclables to be landfilled or incinerated.
Rare Earth Elements & Valuable Metals in the Waste Stream
💎
Critical
Materials
Materials
The Hidden Mine — REEs & Precious Metals in Waste
Municipal and industrial waste streams contain economically significant concentrations of rare earth elements, platinum group metals, and critical minerals. Urban mining — recovering these from waste — is becoming a strategic supply-chain priority globally as primary REE deposits are geopolitically constrained.
📱 E-Waste — electronics, batteries, displays
💧 Wastewater Sludge — biosolids, digester cake
⚫ Coal Fly Ash — largest unconventional REE deposit
95%
Steel recovery rate from WTE bottom ash (EU)
40%
Current global e-waste collection rate (formal)
<1%
REEs currently recovered from waste globally
$57B
Estimated annual value of e-waste metals left unrecovered
④ Regional Variations
How Region Changes the Elemental Story
🌐 Global Baseline
🇺🇸 North America
🇪🇺 Europe
🇨🇳 East Asia
🇮🇳 South Asia
🌍 Sub-Saharan Africa
🌎 Latin America
Global Baseline — All-Region Average
C
43.7%
Carbon
O
31.5%
Oxygen
H
6.1%
Hydrogen
Si
3.0%
Silicon
Ca
3.1%
Calcium
N
1.9%
Nitrogen
Fe
1.3%
Iron
Al
1.1%
Aluminum
K
1.0%
Potassium
S
0.5%
Sulfur
Cl
0.5%
Chlorine
P
0.8%
Phosphorus
Full Deviation Table — All Elements vs. Global Baseline
Percentage point deviation from global baseline.
| Region | C | O | H | N | Si | Ca | K | Al | Fe | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🌐 Baseline | 43.7 | 31.5 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 🇺🇸 N. America | +4.3 | −6.5 | +0.4 | −0.4 | 0.0 | −0.1 | −0.6 | +0.4 | −0.3 | −0.3 |
| 🇪🇺 Europe | +0.3 | −4.5 | +0.4 | −0.7 | +0.5 | +0.9 | −0.5 | −0.1 | +0.2 | −0.3 |
| 🇨🇳 East Asia | −7.7 | +1.5 | −1.1 | −0.4 | +3.0 | +2.4 | −0.4 | +0.4 | +1.2 | −0.3 |
| 🇮🇳 South Asia | +1.3 | +3.5 | −0.1 | +0.6 | −1.0 | −1.1 | 0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 | 0.0 |
| 🌍 Sub-Saharan | −0.7 | +6.5 | −0.1 | +0.6 | −1.5 | −1.6 | +1.0 | −0.4 | −0.3 | +0.7 |
| 🌎 Latin America | +2.3 | −0.5 | +0.4 | +0.1 | −1.0 | −0.6 | +0.5 | −0.1 | −0.3 | +0.2 |
Carbon by Region vs. Baseline
🌐 Baseline
43.7% —
🇺🇸 N. America
48% +4.3pp
🌎 Latin America
46% +2.3pp
🇮🇳 South Asia
45% +1.3pp
🇪🇺 Europe
44% +0.3pp
🌍 Sub-Saharan
43% −0.7pp
🇨🇳 East Asia
36% −7.7pp
⚠️ East Asia's −7.7pp carbon deficit is the largest single-element deviation globally — driven by China's construction debris diluting the organic stream with Si (+3.0pp) and Ca (+2.4pp).